Arlettaz Raphaël
Predictive models of distribution and abundance of a threatened mountain species show that impacts of climate change overrule those of land use change
Project Number: Parcs Data Center 43816 / 4D CH-7113
| Project Type: |
Research_Project |
| Project Duration: |
01/01/2020 - 06/12/2021 project completed |
| Funding Source: |
other , |
| Leading Institution: |
Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern |
| Project Leader: |
Prof. Raphaël Arlettaz
Division of Conservation Biology
Institut für Ökologie und Evolution
Universität Bern
Baltzerstrasse 6
3012 Bern
Phone: +41 (0) 31 631 31 61 ; +41 (0) 31 631 45 11
FAX: +41 (0) 31 631 45 35
e-Mail: raphael.arlettaz(at)iee.unibe.ch
http://www.ecolevol.unibe.ch |
Research Areas:
Disciplines:
Abstract:
Aim: Climate is often the sole focus of global change research in mountain ecosystems
although concomitant changes in land use might represent an equally important
threat. As mountain species typically depend on fine-scale
environmental characteristics,
integrating land use change in predictive models is crucial to properly assess
their vulnerability. Here, we present a modelling framework that aims at providing
more comprehensive projections of both species’ distribution and abundance under
realistic scenarios of land use and climate change, and at disentangling their relative
effects.
Location: Switzerland.
Methods: We used the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus), a red-listed
and declining mountain
bird species, as a study model. Based on standardized monitoring data collected
across the whole country, we fitted high-resolution
ensemble species distribution
models to predict current occurrence probability, while spatially explicit density estimates
were obtained from N-mixture
models. We then tested for the effects of
realistic scenarios of land use (land abandonment versus farming intensification) and
climate change on future species distribution and abundance.
Results: Occurrence probability was mostly explained by climatic conditions, so that
climate change was predicted to have larger impacts on distribution and abundance
than any scenarios of land use change. In the mid-term
(2030–2050),
predicted effects
of environmental change show a high spatial heterogeneity due to regional differences
in climate and dominant land use, with farming intensification identified as
an important threat locally. In the long term (2080–2100),
climate models forecast
a marked upward range shift (up to +560 m) and further population decline (up to
?35%).
Main conclusions: Our innovative approach highlights the spatio-temporal
heterogeneity
in the relative effects of different environmental drivers on species distribution
and abundance. The proposed framework thus provides a useful tool not only for
better assessing species’ vulnerability in the face of global change, but also for identifying
key areas for conservation interventions at a meaningful scale.
Publications:
Barras, A.G., Braunisch, V., Arlettaz, R. (2021): Predictive models of distribution and abundance of a threatened mountain species show that impacts of climate change overrule those of land use change. Diversity and Distributions 2021;27:989–1004.
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Last update: 4/1/22
Source of data: ProClim- Research InfoSystem (1993-2024)
Update the data of project: CH-7113
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